An oil jobs boom in Aberdeen?

That question came to mind this morning after seeing the headline about talks to end the UK windfall tax.

For the past two years the Energy Profits Levy has pushed the total tax rate on North Sea producers close to 75 percent. Investment slowed. Projects waited. Hiring paused.

Now there are signals the policy could change.

Industry body Offshore Energies UK says progress on the tax regime could unlock as much as £50 billion of investment in UK offshore energy.

At the same time Brent crude is trading around $82 a barrel today. That is not a crisis price, but it is high enough to make many North Sea projects commercially attractive if the regulatory environment stabilises.

Some analysts are also warning the price could move sharply higher if geopolitical tensions worsen. If the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted or effectively closed for five or six weeks, several energy desks are already modelling $120 oil scenarios due to the volume of global supply that moves through that narrow passage.

If those forces align, the labour market reacts quickly.

In fact there are already small signs.

One of my connections contacted me this week asking if I could help locate Safety and Integrity Engineers for projects in Aberdeen. I have not been directly involved in day to day resourcing for some time, but that request reminded me how every North Sea hiring cycle begins.

First come a few specialist enquiries.